Edmonton Real Estate Blog

A Sellers Market in Edmonton in June

No sooner had I pushed the publish button on my "weekly update" this afternoon did I receive notification from the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton that the monthly numbers were ready! I don't think they're trying to ruin my vacation but they are certainly giving me lots to do! Just kidding.... They obviously worked hard to correct the problem and release the numbers as quickly as possible.

Anyway, here is what June 2009 actually looked like:

That is a lot of sales! The highest number of residential sales for June ever (that I am aware of) and the third highest number of sales for any month (that I am aware of). What is causing this high number of sales? First it's seasonality - there are always more sales in the spring than in the rest of the year. Second, record low mortgage rates and lower prices. Third, there have been a lot of people sitting on the fence, waiting to buy for a couple of years now and a lot of them have decided now is the right time for them since things are more affordable.

Of course, with an influx of buyers comes more competition (we've seen this on many of our listings that have received multiple offers in the past two months) and increasing prices:

And more sales means dropping inventory. But that is not the end of the story... 

We typically would see the number of new listings drop in June, but they have stayed flat (3180 new listings in May, 3179 in June). Some home owners are starting to jump in with the buyers as well... what I mean is that I'm starting to get a lot of questions from owners who were thinking of selling a couple of years ago but decided to wait when the market turned. Many of these people rented out their properties, or some decided not to move up or down or out of Edmonton. My guess is many of these people are going to try selling again this summer because they feel the market is improving and it's time to cash out. I wouldn't be surprised to see a higher than normal number of new listings in July and perhaps even more than we saw this month.

What could this mean for the market? Well, for buyers that have reserved a rate with their lender it could mean more selection and less competition as the summer progresses, which would be an ideal time for many to buy. For sellers it could mean that they should put away their rose coloured glasses until next year (or maybe the year after that). Whatever it means, the market is certainly unpredictable and we're all going to have to wait and see what happens.

June definitely turned out to be the best month so far for sellers this year, with an 80% sales to new listings ratio is was most definitely a seller's market:

 

 The absorption rate also shows sellers had the upper hand, and for the first month this year I'd say the absorption rate was normal:

 

Hope everyone has a great weekend and I do look forward to the discussion that is generated by these numbers.

Record Breaking Home Sales in Edmonton

Happy Canada Day! I hope everyone is enjoying the day as much as we are. I was planning on doing a full report on the Edmonton residential MLS® sales in June, however, it appears as though the REALTORS® Association computer hit some sort of a glitch, and did not run the daily stats last night. From what I can see, the numbers reported today are exactly the same as yesterday (2425 sales, average residential sale price $327, 935, single family $370,696, condos $247,173). With it being a holiday I can't call anyone and find out what is going on.

That being said, I can give some information on what is happening in Edmonton specifically (as opposed to the whole MLS® region).

Single family home sales in Edmonton have been increasing essentially at the same high rate all year:

 

 

 

 

 

I may have an update for you tomorrow, depending on what happens with the daily stats, otherwise I won't have the final numbers until July 6 when the official numbers are released.        

Edmonton MLS® Listings and Inventory Fall

The Realtors Association of Edmonton noted in its monthly press release that real estate sales and prices are on the rise in Edmonton. While this is true, it is difficult to say how long this will continue. Our thoughts are that the increases are due to seasonality (prices and sales almost always rise in the spring) and historically low interest rates. So when things slow down later this summer, how much slower will it get? Fixed rate mortgage rates have already started to increase - if rates continue to increase, and demand seasonally slows there is potential for an even slower market this fall than last fall. On the other hand, new listings and inventory are not close to what they were last year:

 

 

As we like to remind everyone, there is a close relationship between inventory and prices:

Looking at absorption, the Realtors Association indicated that 3.4 months is typical for the current sales volumes. While I'm not sure what typical is, it is cetain that absorption is much lower than it has been in a long time: 

If you are thinking of buying, make sure you ask for a rate hold from your lender or broker and get it for as long as you can. You never know - there could be some good deals this fall, especially if you have a great rate reserved!

Spring Real Estate Market Heats Up Edmonton

I can't believe it's June already, May just flew by! What a crazy month that started with snow and ended with the warmest weekend of the year (so far) and the most MLS® sales except for the boom years. Sale increased significantly over last month and last year:

 

It seems that single family homes in Edmonton saw the largest gain in sales while sales outside of Edmonton have also steadily increased:

 

The overall average residential sale price increased 4.5% to $326,332, which is still down 4.2% from last May:

 

Looking at Edmonton only, you can see single family home prices rose more than condos:

 

 

More info coming as soon as the Realtors Association of Edmonton releases the full monthly report!

Edmonton Real Estate Market Improves in April - Will it Continue?

We've noticed for some time that the daily increase in inventory has been dropping, to the point that it looks like April could be our peak for inventory this year. While inventory is still well above what would be considered normal for Edmonton, I think we may have a new, higher "normal."

The absorption rate (tells you how many months it will take to sell the remaining inventory if sales continue at the same rate) has dramatically dropped to 4 months. This agrees with the sales to new listings ratio we posted the other day and points towards a seller's market:

 

The average number of days on market also dropped below last year's level:

 

All in all this is the first month where all the stats except for average price are better than the previous month and last year.

The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton reported today:

The average* price of single family homes in the Edmonton area was up 1% from March but, at $353,386, was still 8.5% below the last April price of $386,033. Condo prices were up 2.4% from last month to $236,020 while duplex/rowhouse prices were up 5.2% at $291,068.

“Increased sales activity is evident in most real estate offices and some REALTORS® are reporting multiple offers on select properties,” said Charlie Ponde, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “However, inventory is still relatively high and sellers should price their properties aggressively to attract offers.” 

“REALTORS® are optimistic about the Edmonton market,” said Ponde. “In-migration figures are positive, retail sales in Alberta are still higher than the rest of the country and unemployment figures are lower than other parts of Canada. First-time buyers are entering the market because of historically low interest rates and renovation incentives are encouraging move-up buyers to consider relocation.”

While the numbers do look positive, we don't think people should make too much out of this just yet. There is evidence that the market is finding its balance, and the stats are a lot more positive than we've seen for some time. We expect the average residential sale price will stop its slide and possibly increase into the fall, subject to any financial or other crises locally or globally.

Edmonton MLS® Sales Rebound in April

The preliminary numbers show that there were 1843 residential MLS® sales in the Edmonton area in April making it the first month this year we've seen more sales than last year:

 

The average residential sale price sits at $312k, just slightly up from last month:

 

The number of new listings in April was within the normal range:

 

For the first time in two years we squeaked into a seller's market (just barely):

 

Looking specifically at the Edmonton numbers (not the whole MLS®) the price per square foot for single family homes rose slightly while condos dropped:

The list to sale price ratio continued to rise for single family homes while condos remained flat: 

 

We'll have an update when the Realtors Association releases the final numbers in a couple of days.

Edmonton Real Estate Market Appears Balanced

Hats off to the Realtors Association of Edmonton for putting together the monthly stats and press release in only 1 day! The numbers released yesterday show 1380 residential sales which is what we were expecting, as opposed to what we reported the other day:

 

 The end of month inventory is much lower than last  year, but on the rise as expected:

The number of new listings are increasing at a normal rate:

  

The sales to new listings ratio is solidly in the "balanced market" range: 

And the absorption rate has dropped significantly and sits close to the balanced range as well:  

The average days on market has dropped, and appears to be following the seasonal pattern albeit higher than previous years:  

 

Edmonton Real Estate Market Monthly Report - Sales Within Edmonton on the Rise

Spring break struck the Edmonton real estate market this week - we'd been tracking the number of MLS sales quite closely and as of Friday it looked like we'd have close to 1400 sales for March of 2009. According to the stats published by the Realtors Association of Edmonton today there were actually 1300 sales, and I can't help but think the pace slowed in part due to people (like us) who fled Edmonton for Spring Break.

UPDATE - The monthly numbers released by the Realtor's Association show 1380 sales, there must have been a glitch with the daily reporting system (it was April Fool's Day after all):

Looking at the sales a little more closely, it appears as though sales outside Edmonton slowed, while sales within the city limits increased significantly over last month: 

 

In fact, single family home sales within Edmonton were almost as high as last year:

  

Looking at condos, sales weren't the story this month:

 

The average sale price of condos in Edmonton was the story.  With the average sale price up significantly in March to $227k (from $215 in February while single family homes remained stable:

On a price pe square foot basis, condos were also up:

Lastly, the list price to sale price ratio increased for both condos and single family homes:

 

When the REALTOR'S Association of Edmonton releases the numbers for the MLS as a whole we'll discuss the monthly numbers in more detail.

Edmonton Real Estate Inventory Update

The final numbers for February were released by the Realtors Association of Edmonton the other day. Inventory, compared to last year is lower, and so far is increasing at a slower rate, but it is still much higher than normal:

 

The biggest difference between this month and last month seems to be the absorption rate, which has dropped from 9 months (very high) to 6.6 months (closre to the normal range). The absorption rate gives you an idea of how many months worth of inventory are on the market (if sales continue at the same pace).

  

Edmonton Home Buyers Get a Better Deal in February

The average residential MLS sale price in February was $308,970, down 2.5% from $317,049 in January 2009. The average residential sale price in February 2008 was $338,347 in February 2008, $321,307 in 2007 and $211,531 in 2006.

Looking just at Edmonton (as opposed to the entire MLS are) the average sale price of single family homes was $349,740 (down from $361,442 in January '09 and $388,298 in February '08). Condos were $22,912 (down from $237,888 in January and $260,483 in Feb '08).

Now that we've got prices out of the way, lets have a look at the one number that was better than last February - the sales to new listings ratio was 41%, compared to 30% in January and 36% last February. This was due to stronger sales than we saw in January, and fewer new listings than we say last February which is a good sign.

As you can see, new listings are much closer to the normal range than we have seen in almost two years:

Overall there were 1075 residential sales, compared to 730 in January and 1287 last February:

 

I've create few additional sales charts that give you a good idea of just where these sales are occuring:

 

 

More analysis and stats when the final numbers (including inventory) come out in a few days.