Edmonton Real Estate Blog

Edmonton Monthly Real Estate Stats Update

So as I mentioned last week when I published the monthly stats, a number of sales would not yet have been reported and the final numbers would look a little different. So, inventory didn't end up over 11,000 but I'm certain it will this month (final number 10,606) and there were actually 1823 sales. As far as the charts are concerned they look pretty much the same so I'm not going to put them up again.

There was an interesting article in the Journal today, they interview three real estate "experts" on their thoughts on the market...worth a read.

The Realtor's Association of Edmonton press release mentioned that a "typical sale" is completed at 97% of list price, but many sellers have lowered their asking price. It would be interesting to see what the average sale price is compared to the original asking price, but the database won't allow me to crunch the numbers that way.

Edmonton Real Estate Market Balanced

After three consecutive months of a buyer's market in Edmonton, April saw some balance (barely). The new listings to sale ratio hit 42%, even with almost 4,500 new listings and inventory creeping over 11,000 homes.

The steep competition did affect pricing as the average sale price dropped slightly, falling just below last April's average:

As you can see, competition and inventory are closely related to the average price:

As we've seen in the weekly updates, the last two weeks of April saw the pace of new listings slowing, and we predict the inventory will peak sometime around June.

The one thing that seems normal in Edmonton are sales; they are following the normal annual pattern for our marketplace albeit slightly lower than average.

I haven't included any exact figures, since some of the data is still to come in. The Real Estate Association requires that all sales are reported within 2 business days, so we won't have the exact data until the monthly press release expected early next week. More analysis to follow tomorrow when we're not so busy with clients takeing possession of their new homes.

Edmonton Monthly Real Estate Stats - Corrections

As you know, I posted the stats on Tuesday using the new "daily stats" the Edmonton real estate board is putting out. I indicated in my post that I was concerned these "daily stats" won't match up with the monthly stats and we'd have to wait and see. Well guess what....they don't match up. I don't know why they don't match up, and I don't have time to find out since I'm in Vancouver at a conference. Some of the numbers are different, some are the same - the corrected charts are below. I sincerely apologize for the error, I should have known better!

Sales were higher than previously reported at 1557.

Inventory is a little lower at 9464:

Average price for a single family home was $387,632, condo $263,023 and row house/duplex $308,908.

From the press release:

Single family home prices rose for the second month in a row to an average* sale price of $387,632 in March. After two months of price increases condo prices dropped back slightly (-0.48%) to $263,023 and duplex and rowhouse prices ($308,908) recovered from a five month slide to increase 4.8% over the previous month. The average residential price (which includes SFD, condo, duplex, mobile homes and other types of residential property) was up another 1.6% to $343,760. The average residential price is 5.66% higher than March 2007.

"Total MLS® sales are off as compared to a year ago. Total sales of $610 million in March were down 31% from the record setting pace in March 2007," said Perras. In the first quarter REALTORS® sold over $1.5 billion worth of real estate in Edmonton and area.

Edmonton Real Estate Market Resilient

The Realtors Association of Edmonton has decided to publish stats daily!!! That means I can get our updates online much faster than in months past and will be able to add new info to our weekly stats. I have some concern that the numbers I post today won't match their monthly numbers that should come out in a couple of days but we'll have to wait and see.

The numbers show a very resilient market when you consider the inventory continues to rise and prices are holding steady. The overall average is up about 1% over last month:

The real (and continuing) story is inventory. It continues to rise. This is normal for this time of year, but the level of inventory is almost at a new record (I expect we'll reach this record next month). This means lots of competition for sellers, and lots to choose from for buyers:

New listings don't seem that high, but sales are pretty flat leading to higher inventory:

Perhaps 2008 is the year of the buyer!

Last but not least, you can see even though we've had minor ups and downs in recent months, the average price overall has pretty much flattened out when you compare the annual average:

That's it for today, we'll add some more thoughts through the week, especially once the news release comes out from the board.   

Edmonton Real Estate Prices Rebound in February

I can't believe it. Average real estate prices in the greater Edmonton area are up, see for yourself:

Phew! We're out of danger, everything in Edmonton is back to normal and prices will continue their upward climb!

Lol...ok, maybe not. The news isn't all good this month, but it is encouraging. First off, while sales are up they did not increase over January the way we typically see sales increase:

January saw the second highest number of sales on record, February was not so stellar.

It is still a steady buyer's market (and I mean steady!); the new listings to sales ratio was identical to last month:

Is this the new normal in Edmonton? Lots of new listings every month, and fairly steady sales? I don't think so. Inventory is still quite high, which seems to allow only the best properties to sell each month (by best I mean best value):

What's interesting is normally when inventory increases, prices drop, but this month we saw an increase in both inventory and average price:

I am going to post an in-depth pricing analysis tomorrow to better investigate just what is going on with real estate prices in Edmonton.

On the street, we can see a definite uptick in interest from buyers. We've had three multiple offer situations in the past week (on very well priced properties). We've also gotten offers on our two listings that have been on the market the longest. Has spring fever begun again?

Edmonton Real Estate Market Analysis

The monthly stats are out and it’s a mixed bag. Those championing a market crash have to be bitterly disappointed by the results. The average price actually increased slightly:

While the above graph doesn't relay the full story it leans toward suggesting market stability as opposed to dire market circumstances. The increase in the average price comes with some other signs that suggest not all is hunky dory, but that the pessimistic clamoring for chaos has been soundly trounced.    Inventory has significantly dropped, but is still well above the norm for this marketplace:

December eeked back into a seller's market (technically) for the first time since June, but I expect it will move back to a balanced or buyer's market next month based on previous years.

 

Lowest sales and highest days on market for a few years were also part of the monthly stats which is the mixed signals I referred to earlier.  However, when you look at the sales graphically they don't seem to far off the norm:

As I see it there has definitely been a shift in confidence towards the positive over the past few months. In the last few days we have had several multiple offer situations.  Will this market cool or continue to rebound?  Forecasting is a costly business.  I really do expect to see more inventory come on and I do expect to see sales moderate compared to 2007, but as many have pointed out I am a small cog in the vast wheel of real estate. 

What's next?  As you can see, inventory typically increases for the first part of the year. The question will be...will it increase at a normal rate, or will it increase at the kind of rate we saw in the second half of 2007?  Or have a large portion of the listings that would have come on in the coming months already come on? I think there is a rocky road ahead especially in certain price ranges and product types as I see the market maintining a course correction. 

There's an old saying that "the rumour of my demise has been greatly exaggerated."  I think it is especially true of the Edmonton and area real estate market. My prediction for the year is that the market will go strongly through the first half and cool in the second half. Predictions are made by fools (myself included) with blinders, and there is always something that you don’t factor in, that will direct the market one way or another.  Interesting times lay ahead indeed and this year looks to be an interesting one already.

Prices Catch up to the Market

If you read back over the past few months, you'll see that Sheldon and I were a bit surprised that prices were holding as strong as they were, given the sheer number of homes for sale in Edmonton. Well, I think the average price has finally caught up with the market.

What's interesting, is that this has occurred at a time when the number of sales are improving, and inventory is dropping. So, we'll have to wait and see how the improved sales will affect the average in a month or two. As for November '07, sales appear to be within the norm:

The sales to new listings ratio puts us back into a balanced market, which will have an impact going forward:

As we've mentioned in previous posts, good listings are selling quickly, and we've had more than one buyer miss out in the past week because someone else moved quicker on a good listing.

To keep things in perspective, here is the average price per year for Edmonton:

In summary, our thoughts are that the drop in average prices this month is more of a reflection of prices over the past 3-5 months than a one month slide. I think listings that were on the market in the summer, and have chased the market down for months in order to sell, have now sold below what they could have gotten if they'd priced correctly in the first place, and have brought down the average.

For months people have speculated about a great unwinding in the market, and that just hasn't been the case. They've pointed at credit crisis, royalty reviews, fluctuations in the stock market and more as reasons that this market isn't viable. Time and time again, they have been proven wrong. Even with CIBC announcing Edmonton is the best local economy in Canada, and with other strong fundamentals, it comes down to supply and demand and the affect that has on consumer confidence.

"Tis not good nor bad, but thinking that makes it so." Shakespeare.

We'll have more analysis on absorption, time on market, types of listings and more throughout the week.

Edmonton Real Estate Market Update: October 2007

Is the pendulum starting to swing the other way? It may be... For the last while we've been comparing the market to a pendulum - it swung way over to one side when prices were escalating rapidly in '06 and the first half of '07. Then it swung way over to the other side when inventory started to drastically rise to an all time high. As time passes it should take smaller swings in each direction and eventually settle down.

As you'll see with the charts below, the pendulum seems to have started its swing in the other direction. Don't get me wrong, we're still seeing a drop in prices, inventory is still high, sales are seasonally low, but things seem to be stabilizing. One thing is for certain, sales have definitely perked up compared to the previous months.

October typically has lower sales than September, but as you can see sales in October picked up substantially from previous months to a level similar to 2003-2005.

Of course, everyone wants to know what happened to prices so I won't draw this out:

Average prices went up from $344286 in September to $347668 in October! Now, don't get too excited, the average price for single family homes went down for the 5th month in a row. Condos have been keeping the overall average up while single family prices have declined (more on this tomorrow).

We also saw inventory drop for the first time since February. We were starting to wonder if it would ever drop!

Sales increased, but expiries, cancellations and terminations also contributed to the drop in inventory (more on this later in the week).

All these factors have pushed the market more towards a more balanced market:

So, we just got access to these stats, and it takes some time to create these charts and analyze the information, so I can't get it all up in one day. We'll have more information, analysis, and new charts (absorption rates, days on market and more) as the week goes on. Combined with the new data we got from CMHC last week, this week will be a great week for new information on the real estate market in Edmonton. So check back each day, or better yet subscribe to our feed and you won't miss a beat.

Lastly, I know everyone likes to debate the analysis when it comes out and we love the comments, just try to keep it civil.

Edmonton Home Sellers Stand Their Ground

I can't believe it and I don't think you will either. Average residential prices in Edmonton remained unchanged in September, unless of course you count a drop of about $500 as change. I know, unbelievable! The press release isn't out yet so I don't know what happened with the median price, but here is what it looks like:

Inventory is up slightly (we just stayed under that 10,000 number some people have been predicting), and the number of new listings has dropped, just as we've been predicting on the blog.

Sales have also dropped seasonally relative to the past few months:

But it is the lowest we've seen for September for years. What does this mean? Sales are down and prices holding steady...I'd say sellers are flat out refusing to sell! This weekend we've had five deals go nowhere...the buyers came up a bit from their first offer, and the sellers came down a bit from their asking price, but there was no meeting in the middle. The fact of the matter is, it's a solid buyer's market in our opinion and at some point sellers are either going to have to walk, hold or meet the buyers' demands:

Edmonton Real Estate Market Report: August 2007

Good News, Bad News….Feels normal to me

The Realtor's Association of Edmonton posted the monthly results for August this afternoon, before their press release which I assume will come out tomorrow. Needless to say we got the stats here for you as quickly as we could, we'll post more analysis and the press release from the board tomorrow.

Market stats for August are a mixed bag.  Average sales price was down a notch - I don’t think we’re done there yet, but it definitely was better than what many market detractors were predicting.

New listings to sales ratio is down to 30%.  That’s low even if you take into account the practice of re-listing (the Association is looking into changes to curb that practice).  It becomes difficult though if you have clients like I had in July who listed their property and days later had a baby and we basically had to terminate the property and bring it back on when things were more settled for them.  Once the  particulars are worked out  we’ll see a more accurate figure there – hopefully. 

Sales were low, even if seasonal factors are considered they were low compared to previous years.  However the last 4 days of August and the first four days of September seem to be busier than all of August (based on calls about, traffic to and offers on listings, as well as conversations with other Realtors).   

Multiple offers are by no means done but are definitely the exception not the norm. Offers that do come in tend to be below list and with conditions. There is really a mixed bag of stuff going on - some areas have 20 months of supply, some have 2 months supply.  Some of our listings have flown off the shelves with multiple offers and some are just sitting (depending on price range and type of product). Lots of properties are pending, subject to the sale of another property.  This feels like a normal market except for the high inventory.

Some will say more inventory is coming, yet the total today is already down from the end of August (today's estimate is down to 8700 on MLS). Are we going to see tons of expired listings?  Likely fairly soon we’ll start to see a lot more listings not selling during the term of their MLS listing contract (a normal market occurrence).

It is clear from what I’ve seen that the rate of new listings coming on the market has abated significantly.  That doesn’t mean it can’t surge or won’t grow.  It simply means it has slowed down.

I think the chart below helps put things into perspective a little bit.  Maybe you won't get now what you could have in May or June, but you can still get significantly more than last year.

Blanket predictions are almost impossible now on the entire market.  So my recommendation is: get professional advice for your specific circumstance whether you are buying or selling.